Bitcoin’s Potential Drop Below $60,000 Could Trigger a Wave of ETF Liquidations, Says Analyst

The $60,000 level for Bitcoin (BTC) isn’t just a round number—it might be crucial support. Traders often misjudge the importance of round numbers, but this time, $60,000 could be a tipping point.

Impact on Bitcoin ETFs

“Estimations suggest the average entry price for a Bitcoin ETF is between $60,000 and $61,000. Testing this level could lead to a wave of liquidations,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

Since launching on January 11, the 11 U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen over $14 billion in net inflows, according to Farside Investors.

Role of Basis Trading in ETF Inflows

Thielen notes that 30% of these flows are part of a non-directional arbitrage strategy known as basis trading, rather than direct bullish bets.

Recent Bitcoin Price Movements

Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 at the end of April, bottoming out around $56,500 after BlackRock suggested that major institutional investors like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and endowments might start trading in spot ETFs.

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Retail vs. Institutional Investment

However, JPMorgan recently revealed that 80% of the spot ETF inflows came from existing participants in the cryptocurrency market.

“When BTC fell to $56,500 on May 2, BlackRock claimed that ‘sovereign wealth funds and pensions’ were coming in,” Thielen noted. “That helped stop the decline, but now BlackRock says 80% of their Bitcoin ETF IBIT purchases are from retail investors, not institutions.”

Factors Contributing to Bitcoin’s Decline

Bitcoin has dropped nearly 14% in four weeks, primarily due to faster sales by miners and old wallets, Germany’s divestment of cryptocurrency holdings, and fears that the reimbursement from the defunct exchange Mt. Gox will trigger a wave of sales.

BTC has dropped 4% in the last 24 hours, trading at $60,200 after dipping just below $60,000 on Friday morning.

Mt. Gox Reimbursements and Investor Nervousness

As the reimbursement date for former Mt. Gox users approaches, crypto investors are increasingly nervous. Bitcoin is precariously close to losing the key support level of $60,000.

Recently, the trustee of the hacked exchange, Nobuaki Kobayashi, announced that reimbursements would start in July, causing an immediate negative reaction from Bitcoin investors. Since then, BTC has struggled to maintain a stable recovery.

Current Volatility in Bitcoin’s Price

As a result, Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility. At the time of writing, its spot trading value is just above $60,000 per token, translating to a nearly 4% drop in 24 hours and a 1.87% decline over a week.

Impact on Bitcoin-based ETFs

This situation extends to the New York Stock Exchange, where Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also in a less-than-positive state. Although inflows remain in the green, they are minimal and come amid a series of significant daily liquidations.

What Will Happen to Bitcoin’s Price Now?

Hopes for Recovery

Despite Bitcoin’s proximity to breaking the $60,000 floor, there are hopes for recovery. The Mt. Gox reimbursements won’t be immediate, and not all recipients are expected to sell their coins.

According to the trustee’s document, distributions will be gradual. This means that the liquidity entering the market likely won’t be as dramatic as the most worried investors fear. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency sector is highly volatile, and holders tend to panic easily.

Concerns About Reimbursement Timing and Market Impact

This concern is understandable, given the reimbursement plan does not provide an exact schedule for dates and amounts. The situation is even more tense for investors when considering the significant amount of BTC entering the market. “This excess of up to 140,000 BTC should continue to weigh on the markets, especially since the exact release schedule is currently unknown,” comments QCP Capital, as cited by Decrypt.

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Analyst Warnings and Short-term Outlook

Analysts on the same portal warn that if Bitcoin fails to stay above $62,000, there could be a risk of massive liquidation. With all these factors in play, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price is complicated. While it threatens to lose a significant portion of its value, it also presents a buying opportunity for the most daring investors.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets, and investing in them can lead to total losses.

What Will Happen to Bitcoin’s Price Now?

Despite Bitcoin’s proximity to breaking the $60,000 floor, there are hopes for recovery. The Mt. Gox reimbursements won’t be immediate, and not all recipients are expected to sell their coins.

According to the trustee’s document, distributions will be gradual. This means that the liquidity entering the market likely won’t be as dramatic as the most worried investors fear. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency sector is highly volatile, and holders tend to panic easily.

This concern is understandable, given the reimbursement plan does not provide an exact schedule for dates and amounts. The situation is even more tense for investors when considering the significant amount of BTC entering the market. “This excess of up to 140,000 BTC should continue to weigh on the markets, especially since the exact release schedule is currently unknown,” comments QCP Capital, as cited by Decrypt.

Analysts on the same portal warn that if Bitcoin fails to stay above $62,000, there could be a risk of massive liquidation. With all these factors in play, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price is complicated. While it threatens to lose a significant portion of its value, it also presents a buying opportunity for the most daring investors.

WARNING: This is an informational article. Geek Metaverse is a media outlet, it does not promote, endorse or recommend any particular investment. It is worth noting that cryptoasset investments are not regulated in some countries.

They may not be appropriate for retail investors, as the full amount invested could be lost. Check your country’s laws before investing.

FAQs

Why is the $60,000 level crucial for Bitcoin (BTC)?

The $60,000 level is seen as a critical support point because many Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have an average entry price around this figure. A drop below $60,000 could trigger significant sell-offs and liquidations, potentially leading to further declines in Bitcoin’s price.

What is an ETF and how does it relate to Bitcoin?

An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, is a type of investment fund traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. This can be appealing to institutional and retail investors who want to invest in Bitcoin without dealing with the complexities of buying and storing the actual coins.

How have Bitcoin ETFs performed since their launch?

Since their debut on January 11, the 11 U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated over $14 billion in net inflows. Despite recent market volatility, these ETFs have attracted significant investment, though a large portion of this comes from existing cryptocurrency market participants.

What is basis trading and how does it affect Bitcoin ETFs?

Basis trading is a non-directional arbitrage strategy where traders exploit the price difference between Bitcoin spot prices and futures prices. About 30% of the flows into Bitcoin ETFs are from this strategy, indicating that not all investments are direct bullish bets on Bitcoin’s price rising.

Why did Bitcoin’s price drop below $60,000 at the end of April?

Bitcoin’s price fell below $60,000 due to a combination of factors including faster sales by miners and old wallets, divestment of cryptocurrency holdings by Germany, and fears related to the impending reimbursement from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange.

What is the Mt. Gox reimbursement and why does it matter?

Mt. Gox was a major Bitcoin exchange that was hacked in 2014, resulting in significant losses for its users. The reimbursement process involves returning Bitcoin to these users. As these Bitcoins re-enter the market, there are concerns that a sudden increase in supply could drive prices down.

How will the Mt. Gox reimbursements be handled?

The reimbursements will be carried out gradually, not all at once. This staged approach aims to minimize market disruption, although the exact timeline and amounts are currently unclear, which adds to market uncertainty.

What role do institutional investors play in Bitcoin ETF inflows?

Initially, it was believed that institutional investors like sovereign wealth funds and pensions were driving the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. However, recent data from JPMorgan indicates that 80% of the inflows are actually from existing participants in the cryptocurrency market, mainly retail investors.

What are the risks of Bitcoin dropping below $60,000?

If Bitcoin falls below $60,000, it could trigger a wave of ETF liquidations as many funds might be forced to sell their holdings, leading to further price declines. This could create a negative feedback loop, exacerbating the market downturn.

Is there a chance for Bitcoin’s price to recover?

Yes, there is potential for recovery. The gradual nature of the Mt. Gox reimbursements means that the market might not be flooded with Bitcoin all at once. Additionally, market conditions and investor sentiment can change, providing opportunities for price rebounds.

What should investors consider in this volatile market?

Investors should be aware of the high volatility and potential risks involved in the cryptocurrency market. It is crucial to stay informed about market developments, understand the factors driving price movements, and consider diversifying investments to mitigate risks.