McKinsey and Company estimates that the metaverse could generate an economic value of between $4 million and $5 million by 2030, as strong adoption by the business and consumer sectors is expected.
McKinsey Report
In its report, McKinsey states that the potential economic value of the metaverse will be determined by several factors, including its appeal across genders, geographies and generations, consumer spending on digital goods, and openness to adopting new technologies.
Heavy investment by companies in metaverse infrastructure development and brands experimenting with the metaverse with positive consumer feedback will also contribute to its increased economic value.
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“While estimates of the potential economic value of the metaverse vary widely, our bottom-up view of consumer and business use cases suggests that it could generate an impact of up to $5 trillion by 2030, equivalent to the size of the world’s current third-largest economy, Japan,” McKinsey says.
“It is shaping up to be the biggest growth opportunity for several industries over the next decade, given its potential to enable new business models, products and services, and to act as an engagement channel for both business-to-consumer and business-to-business relationships,” he adds.
While efforts to implement the metaverse are present in a number of sectors, most initiatives to date have focused on marketing, learning and development for entrepreneurs, virtual meetings, events or conferences, and product design or digital twinning.
However, according to McKinsey, e-commerce is expected to have the greatest economic impact in the metaverse.
The sector is estimated to have a market impact of between $2 million and $2.6 million by 2030, “depending on whether there is a base case or a positive case for metaverse development.”
This contribution is higher than other sectors, such as academic e-learning, estimated at $180 billion to $270 billion, advertising at $144 billion to $206 billion, and gaming at $108 billion to $125 billion.
Reaching full potential
The metaverse needs four technology drivers to help it reach its full potential.
Augmented and virtual reality devices, haptics and peripherals will drive adoption of the metaverse.
But more significant advances are needed in quality and usability factors such as weight, battery life and computing power.
McKinsey said interoperability and open standards are also crucial to enabling the metaverse. Interoperability is a “nuanced issue with user-oriented components,” such as identity and ownership.
It also includes elements such as cross-platform development, file formats, behavior and physics of 3D environments, distribution and monetization.
In addition, a new set of access and discovery tools is needed, as well as platforms that facilitate payments, monetization and advertising.
And a secure metaverse is needed, as privacy issues in metaverses are “greatly amplified” due to the increased level and complexity of data collected and the increased risks of impersonation, harassment and possible need for content moderation in 3D environments.
“Stakeholders must be aware of the broader implications of their actions and, at a minimum, learn from past generations of online community and platform creators to define a roadmap towards an ethical, safe and inclusive metaverse experience.” The intention should not be to build another social network, but a social-scale construction that puts people first,” McKinsey said.
The conclusion of the report, which emphasizes the effects the metaverse can have on personal and professional lives, is that “it’s simply too big to ignore.” According to a McKinsey forecast, by 2030 more than half of all live events, potentially worth $5 trillion, could take place in the metaverse.
The term “metaverse,” first used by Neal Stephenson in his science fiction book Snow Crash (1992), is now used to refer to a multi-billion dollar industry that combines different ideas and technologies. It is defined as a computer-generated cosmos accessible through specialized glasses.
These underlying technologies span a wide range of industries, from gaming to real estate to fashion to interoperable collaboration tools, and include blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality and more.
One-third of singles responding to a survey expressed interest in dating in the virtual world, putting the Metaverse in a good position to welcome contemporary romantics.
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