Analyst Ran Neuner stated that the price of bitcoin (BTC) could fall to a low of $20,000 this September, due to the king cryptocurrency’s historical trend of being bearish during that month.
In a new video on his YouTube channel, Neuner, also known as Crypto Banter, said the low volatility in the cryptomarket partially explains the prolonged bear market.
He added that the bulls are showing signs of weakness and the bearish are rapidly gaining momentum. As a result, the BTC price could fall to a low of $20,899 this month.
In addition, he mentioned that the slowdown in cryptocurrency prices forced investors to hold on to their money and get tired of the meager movements in digital currencies.
In that scenario, bitcoin has been fighting a stormy bear market in which the market lost billions of dollars, following price pullbacks after sudden surges in values, as seen after the brief rally following the victory of Grayscale’s bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the case against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The price of BTC experienced a sharp drop in August, pushing the price to a low just above $25,000.
The market sentiment that precipitated that drop still persists, with bitcoin hovering between $26,000 and $27,000.
According to Neuner, the massive regulatory crackdown in the U.S. against crypto institutions worsened the cryptomarket’s performance.
Likewise, the SEC’s reluctance to approve a bitcoin ETF also affected the performance of cryptocurrencies.
The analyst added that he expects the regulator’s rejection of the ETF to continue until the final deadline in March 2024.
2024 bullish for bitcoin?
However, in addition to the ETF’s approval, the crypto community expects a revival in the market starting in April next year, the month when bitcoin is scheduled to halve its mining reward, following halving.
Historically, this event triggers a bullish rally in the BTC price
In the short term, Neuner highlighted that chart analysis shows that bitcoin’s relief rally ended, so the leading cryptocurrency will show lower lows in the coming days.
Bitcoin (BTC) prediction Can it break the cycle of a historically bearish September?
Bitcoin’s price started August in a range between $28,000 and $30,000. However, after the flash crash last August 17, BTC hit a two-month low of $25,670.
Following Grayscale’s victory against the SEC experienced yesterday, Bitcoin’s price briefly reached $28,000, but has retreated slightly. Here, analysts share their views for the month ahead.
September: A historically bearish month
Through the data presented by Coinglass, it can be seen that the month of September has been historically negative for Bitcoin’s price performance.
In the graph below, it can be seen that, in 10 years, Bitcoin only had positive returns during the months of September 2015 and 2016. In contrast, 2014 recorded the biggest drop in that month by as much as 19%.
In this regard, analyst and trader Eric Crown echoed the historical data and expounded to his 76.8k followers on X (formerly Twitter):
Bitcoin in September. 9 of the total 13 prior Septs have had negative returns open to close and avg loss return -12.80% pic.twitter.com/nwqhhZ5upg
— Eric Crown (@KrownCryptoCave) August 29, 2023
“Bitcoin in September: 9 of the previous 13 total Septembers have had negative returns from open to close and an average loss return of -12.80%.”
For his part, “Crypto Tony”, shared a similar idea and emphasized that “this is the longest bear market in history”. Subsequently, he does not rule out a possible drop in Bitcoin’s price to $20,000:
“To me [the] $28,500 is the most important low that the bulls need to get above to invalidate a bearish drop to $20,000 in the next few months. This is a structure I am watching closely and it fits my chart very well.”
Is the correction over or are more falls to come?
Michaël van de Poppe also shared a less dramatic prediction for Bitcoin’s price. The analyst highlighted via his X account that BTC “crucial resistance at $26,800 and failed to offer continuation, until yesterday’s big breakout.” He subsequently expounded:
The #Bitcoin price broke above $27,000. Is the correction over?
It might.
We've broken out of the tiny range and we need to stay above to avoid another liquidation cascade.
If we do, we're confirming that the correction is over and that we're going to target new highs. 👇… pic.twitter.com/KCqqsN3kVD
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 30, 2023
“For now, I would prefer Bitcoin to stabilize and hold above some important levels. I would identify the $26,800 level as crucial and I don’t want to see a clear break below that level, as then we would be back in range and get a cascade of liquidation.”
In his view, the $24,800 – $25,200 price range still holds, but he cautions:
“Then you could argue that we are in a weak case and we could miss the 200-week EMA and go even lower. If we hold here, we will copy and paste the 2015 momentum in the markets and be on the verge of a massive upside move.”
Therefore, the probability that it could drop to the macro level of $4,000 increases to 54%.
In the short term, the $27,800 barrier will be important. If it fails to break through it, the downtrend will continue for the next few months prior to halving.
For his part, CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, pointed out that the price drop experienced in August demonstrated “Bitcoin’s vulnerability to larger transactions, exacerbated by the current low volumes”.
According to the analyst, BTC trading volume last summer averaged $7.5 billion per day. In contrast, this summer it averaged $4 billion.
In this regard, Butterfill questioned whether market conditions next September could defend Bitcoin’s price.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin has shown some renewed momentum, its history of bearish September performance warrants caution. Holding key support levels will be crucial to prevent significant losses.
But falling volume and ongoing ETF uncertainty present headwinds. With mixed signals, September could prove volatile for Bitcoin prices. Yet the potential for upside makes it a pivotal month to watch.
FAQs
What typically causes Bitcoin’s September declines?
Historically, risk-off sentiment and seasonal changes in trading activity have contributed to September weakness. This lines up with broader market trends.
Could macroeconomic factors impact September’s outlook?
Yes, issues like inflation and potential recession could increase risk-off behavior. But conversely, any improvements may make Bitcoin more appealing as a hedge.
What could turn sentiment positive in September?
Renewed crypto adoption, more institutional investment, or regulatory clarity like ETF approval could provide bullish catalysts this month.
Does on-chain data support a bearish or bullish case currently?
Metrics are mixed, with stable long-term holders but weakness among short-term holders. This data shows indecision in the market right now.
How low could Bitcoin realistically go in a bear case?
Avoiding a wick below $20,000 would prevent major technical damage. Worst case, some see a return to the $17,000 – $19,000 range as possible if selling pressure intensifies.
WARNING: This is an informational article. Geek Metaverse is a media outlet, it does not promote, endorse or recommend any particular investment. It is worth noting that cryptoasset investments are not regulated in some countries.
They may not be appropriate for retail investors, as the full amount invested could be lost. Check your country’s laws before investing.
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