Have you ever wondered whether celestial events, such as full moons, could affect the price of Bitcoin? Though it may seem like financial astrology, some traders swear by the Bitcoin moon cycle, claiming that lunar phases correlate with market trends.
From Reddit discussions to TradingView indicators, the idea that moon phases and stock (or crypto) market behavior are linked has gained traction. But is there any real evidence, or is this just another trading myth?
In this deep dive, we’ll explore:
The Bitcoin moon cycle chart and historical patterns
How moon phase indicators are used in crypto trading
Whether new moon trading or full moon rallies hold statistical weight
Expert opinions and backtested strategies
By the end, you’ll know if aligning your trades with the lunar cycle is a smart strategy or just superstition.
Understanding the Bitcoin Moon Cycle
What is the Bitcoin Moon Cycle?
It refers to the observed trend of Bitcoin price surges coinciding with full moon phases. This theory gained traction when multiple Reddit users began sharing charts showing significant Bitcoin price increases around full moons.
A Bitcoin moon cycle chart plots historical price data against lunar phases, revealing a potential recurring pattern of price increases during full moons and dips during new moons.
Is there scientific evidence behind it?
Although no definitive scientific study has confirmed a causal relationship, behavioral finance experts suggest that lunar cycles may influence investor psychology. Some researchers believe that full moons increase emotional volatility, which could lead to more speculative trading activity.
Studies have examined the relationship between moon phases and stock market performance and found that returns tend to be higher around full moons than around new moons. Could the same logic apply to Bitcoin?
The Bitcoin Moon Cycle: Myth or Market Mover?
Historical Patterns: Does Bitcoin Rally on Full Moons?
According to anecdotal evidence from Reddit threads and trading forums, Bitcoin often experiences volatility around full moons. For example:
In March 2025, Bitcoin surged during a full moon, coinciding with a bullish run in SPY (S&P 500).
However, some full moons have coincided with sharp drops, suggesting that this effect isn’t consistent.
A 20-year study by the University of Lausanne found that lunar-based trading strategies outperformed the market by 3.3% annually. But does this apply to cryptocurrency?
Moon Phase Indicator on TradingView: How Traders Use It
Many traders rely on TradingView scripts, such as the Moon Phase Volatility Indicator. This indicator marks full and new moons on charts and measures Average True Range (ATR) to gauge volatility.
Key observations from traders:
– Full moons may trigger increased volatility due to psychological effects, such as sleep disruption affecting decision-making.
New moons could signal accumulation phases, when Bitcoin bottoms before a rally.
But is this backed by data, or is it just confirmation bias?
Moon Phases and the Stock Market: Does the Correlation Extend to Crypto?
The Science (or Lack Thereof) Behind Lunar Trading
While some studies suggest a link between moon phases and stock market performance, others dismiss it as a coincidence. For example:
A University of Zurich study claimed that lunar-based strategies outperformed the market by 6.8% annually.
However, critics argue that market fundamentals, such as halving events and ETF inflows, matter far more than celestial events.
Bitcoin Moon Phases vs. Traditional Markets
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s decentralized, 24/7 nature makes it more susceptible to sentiment-driven swings, which could potentially amplify the effects of the moon phases. Some traders have noted that:
Full moons often precede 3-4 days of bullish momentum in Bitcoin.
New moons may align with local bottoms, offering buying opportunities.
However, without rigorous backtesting, these remain theories rather than rules.
How to Trade Bitcoin Using the Moon Phases:
A Step-by-Step Approach to the Moon Strategy for Bitcoin
If you’re interested in trying out the Bitcoin moon cycle, here’s a simple framework:
Track Lunar Dates
Use a moon phase indicator (e.g., TradingView) or NASA’s lunar calendar.
Mark full moons (potential volatility) and new moons (potential reversals).
Combine this with technical analysis.
Look for RSI divergences or support/resistance levels near lunar events.
Example: If Bitcoin is oversold at a new moon, it might signal a price increase.
Backtest before live trading.
Historical data shows mixed results—some full moons spark rallies, while others cause drops.
Always use stop-losses to manage risk.
Is a full moon bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
It depends:
Bullish case: Some traders report gap-up openings after full moons.
Bearish case: Others see sell-offs due to overextended sentiment.
The key? Don’t rely solely on lunar cycles—use them as a supplementary tool.
Tools for Tracking Lunar Influence in Crypto
Moon Phase Indicator on TradingView
One of the most popular tools among traders is the Moon Phase Indicator on TradingView. This custom script overlays lunar phase data onto price charts, enabling traders to see if Bitcoin’s moon phases align with market fluctuations.
This indicator can be customized to show:
- New moon
- Waxing crescent
- First quarter
- Waxing gibbous
- Full moon
- Waning gibbous
- Last quarter
- Waning crescent
Many traders use this tool to test theories such as:
- “Does Bitcoin increase during a full moon?”
- “Is a full moon bullish or bearish for crypto?”
Bitcoin Moon Phases Explained
To better understand how Bitcoin moon phases are analyzed, here’s a breakdown of how traders categorize them:
Although these observations are largely anecdotal, they form the basis of what some traders refer to as the “Moon Strategy” for Bitcoin.
Real-World Examples: Bitcoin Price vs. Lunar Cycles
Let’s examine a few historical instances when Bitcoin price spikes coincided with full moons.
Example 1: March 2021 — Bitcoin rallied during a full moon.
In March 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of nearly $65,000 during a full moon. Traders on Reddit noted this alignment and coined the phrase “Bitcoin moon cycle.”
Example 2: July 2023 – Bullish Surge Around Full Moon
Another surge occurred in mid-July 2023, when Bitcoin jumped from $30,000 to $35,000 in the days leading up to a full moon. Many analysts cited the moon phase indicator as a possible contributing factor.
These patterns have led some traders to adopt a moon-based investment strategy and ask questions like:
- “What time of day is Bitcoin highest?”
- “What day of the week is Bitcoin highest?”
Practical Applications: Can You Trade Based on Moon Cycles?
Is a full moon bullish or bearish?
Most traders who use the lunar strategy for Bitcoin claim that full moons tend to be bullish, while new moons are associated with lower trading volume and consolidation.
However, it’s important to remember that this strategy should never replace traditional technical analysis. Instead, consider it a supplementary tool for understanding market sentiment.
🚨 Pro tip: Always combine moon phase indicators with other signals, such as moving averages or volume metrics.
New Moon Trading Strategy
Some traders believe that the new moon phase is ideal for quietly entering positions ahead of potential full moon rallies. Here’s how to approach it:
- Identify the next new moon date using a Moon Phase Indicator TradingView.
- Monitor Bitcoin accumulation patterns.
- Look for signs of increased whale activity or exchange inflows.
- Enter early if other indicators support the move.
But again, ask yourself:
- “Is the full moon’s effect on trading significant enough to base decisions on?”
- “What factors determine the price of Bitcoin beyond astrological events??
FAQs
Does the value of Bitcoin increase during a full moon?
Sometimes. Historical data shows mixed results—some full moons trigger rallies, while others precede corrections. Always confirm with technical analysis.
Does the full moon affect trading?
Studies suggest increased volatility around full moons, possibly due to psychological effects. However, this is not a guaranteed pattern.
What is the moon strategy for Bitcoin?
It’s a strategy where traders buy near new moons (potential bottoms) and sell near full moons (potential peaks). Backtesting is essential.
Is a full moon bullish or bearish?
It can be both. Some traders see bullish momentum, while others note reversals. Context matters, such as market trends and volume.
What time of day is Bitcoin highest?
It often peaks during U.S. trading hours (12 p.m. to 4 p.m. EST), when liquidity is highest.
What does “moon” mean in Bitcoin?
In crypto slang, “moon” refers to a sharp price increase (e.g., “Bitcoin is going to the moon!”).
What day of the week is Bitcoin highest?
Historically, weekends (especially Sundays) have lower liquidity, while weekdays (Wednesday–Thursday) have stronger price movements.
What determines the price of Bitcoin?
Factors include supply and demand, halving events, institutional interest, macroeconomic trends, and lunar cycles, according to some.
What will Bitcoin peak at?
Predictions vary. ARK Invest suggests $243,000 by 2025 if historical cycles repeat.
What is the moon cycle in crypto trading?
It is the theory that lunar phases (new or full moons) influence the crypto market, which is often tracked via moon phase indicators.
What is Bitcoin’s all-time peak?
As of November 2024, Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) is $90,446.
Conclusion
Although the Bitcoin moon cycle is a fascinating concept, it is not a standalone strategy. What’s the best approach?
✅ Use moon phases as a secondary indicator alongside technical analysis (TA) and fundamentals.
✅ Backtest historical lunar patterns before applying them.
✅ Remember to stay skeptical—markets are driven by data, not just celestial events.
