The bitcoin (BTC) price rally could reach its ceiling at $30,000, according to different analyses of the mother cryptocurrency.
After a 22% surge this week, BTC dawned Wednesday with a modest 0.14% rise and a value of $21,274 at the time of writing.
If the trend continues, the major cryptocurrency could match its historic 15-day winning streak, which occurred in November 2013, according to data from DocumentingBTC.
— Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 (@DocumentingBTC) January 17, 2023
At the moment, bitcoin has 14 days of bullish rally, which helped it reach a four-month high.
However, the new uptrend may be reaching its ceiling, according to new data from analytics firm Santiment.
“Are cryptomarkets seeing a top? Traders are taking this opportunity to profit. Bitcoin is experiencing its highest rate of gains since February 2021. For Ethereum, it’s the highest since October 2021″, the firm wrote on its Twitter account.
💸 Are #crypto markets seeing a top? Traders are behaving like they believe so, taking this opportunity to profit take while given the chance. #Bitcoin is seeing its highest profit tx ratio since Feb, 2021. For #Ethereum, it's the highest since Oct, 2021. https://t.co/GFrtZtFIYP pic.twitter.com/yqDc2uDPuR
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 16, 2023
Meanwhile, fellow crypto-analysis firm Glassnode noted that the price of bitcoin has seen a higher volume of gains, compared to the losses it has generated recently. Not since last June has BTC reached this milestone.
“During bear cycles, this tends to act as a psychological level where investors sell at or near breakeven, creating resistance,” the firm argues.
For the first time since June, #Bitcoin has seen a greater volume of Profits realized on-chain than losses.
During bear cycles, this tends to act as a psychological level where investors sell at, or near break-even, creating resistance.
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 16, 2023
Glassnode also believes that bitcoin is trying to break back above 1.0 on the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator. This reflects the ratio of buying and selling prices.
This would be the first time the cryptocurrency has reached that level since the collapse of the FTX exchange in the current market. The aSOPR has been a key bear market resistance level.
“A convincing break above 1.0 for the P/E ratio has historically signaled that a cycle regime change is underway. A successful retest and rebound of aSOPR from 1.0 is often seen near cycle inflection points,” the firm highlighted.
Is the ceiling at $30,000?
Analyst Kaleo warned that BTC is likely setting up for a rebound towards $30,000, a price level it has not seen since June 2022.
$30K is a magnet. pic.twitter.com/yhpJh0zwqt
— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) January 16, 2023
Although the crypto strategist is bullish on bitcoin, he believes the path to its $30,000 target will not be in a straight line.
“We expect one more wick below $20,000 before we see it. A bit of a cut/build below the high time frame trend before God’s candle makes sense. However, God’s candle will be here soon enough,” he tweeted.
Kaleo emphasized that the move below $20,000 would likely trigger the entry of short positions, making the bitcoin price ripe for a brief pullback.
A short position occurs when traders on derivatives exchanges borrow an asset at a certain price in the hope of selling it at a lower price.
The analyst also estimated that the brief pullback would be imminent, given that bitcoin has risen more than 23% in just seven days.
Something like this pic.twitter.com/wasZmMMsre
— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) January 16, 2023
Big investors bet that BTC would go up in price
Bitcoin shark addresses, those holding between 10 and 100 BTC, have been the first to boost the price of the cryptocurrency and drive it into the current uptrend, according to Santiment.
These investors added 105,600 coins (about $2.2 billion) in just 10 weeks, helping to slow the cryptocurrency’s slide below $16,000.
📉 The overall supply of #Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped from 11.85% to 6.65% over the past year, a historic drop that illustrates the rise in interest in self custody. #Binance, #Coinbase, #Kraken, #Kucoin, and #Bitstamp all reflect this $BTC exodus. https://t.co/4GSJs29fOK pic.twitter.com/aDLuAw3oiU
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 18, 2023
Subsequently, small whales, or addresses with more than 1,000 BTC, began actively buying bitcoin, driving the price of the digital currency to $18,000 over an eight-week period.
At that point, these investors bought around 67,000 BTC (more than $1.4 billion).
The price of the cryptocurrency was subsequently boosted to $21,000, when the largest whales bought about 37,100 BTC (about $800 million), in just 10 days.
Whale movements leave doubts
All these whale movements raised suspicions about activity on Binance’s order book, as large traders have increased the volume of supply.
Blockchain analytics firm Material Indicators mentioned on Twitter that a single entity was potentially raising bitcoin bids, which helped push BTC/USD to two-month highs.
1/2 Is a whale with $4M trying to front run the whale with a $22M Buy Wall, or is it the same whale?
Not sure if this is what it appears to be or if it's the same entity. Whatever the case, the net effect helps push price up and one or both could get rugged if price approaches. pic.twitter.com/jBeFU6deB1
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) January 17, 2023
“Is it a whale with $4 million trying to get ahead of a whale with a $22 million buy wall, or is it the same whale?” he questioned in the post. “I’m not sure if this is what it appears to be or if it is the same entity. Whatever the case, the net effect helps drive the price,” he added.
However, in another tweet he expressed concern about “how long they can keep this up”, which would imply an upcoming corrective move that could affect bitcoin and its price.
Good Night bird app fam. Gotta give these guys an 'A' for effort. Not sure how long they can keep this up. Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings. I'll leave you with one last look at the #BTC #FireChart. pic.twitter.com/fm63lgnZ7Q
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) January 18, 2023
Whatever the case, several technical analysts point out that the price of bitcoin could continue to rise due to the uptrend that has been evident in recent months, with some short-term corrections.
As pointed out by the experienced Peter Brandt, who suggested that BTC may already be close to reaching its bear market floor.
WARNING: This is an informational article. Geek Metaverse is a media outlet, it does not promote, endorse or recommend any particular investment. It is worth noting that crypto asset investments are not regulated in some countries. They may not be appropriate for retail investors, as the full amount invested could be lost. Check your country’s laws before investing.
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